Last night the Cavs beat the Grizzlies, 94-90. Both teams were missing a lot of players. Grizzlies were missing notably Ja, JJJ, and Justise Winslow, and the Cavs were without Sexton, Garland, Kpj, Exum, Love, Delly, and Windler. This game was nothing like what it would've been if both teams were healthy, but a win is a win.
Good: Nance had 18 points and 3 steals shooting 7/7-4/4, Osman was 4/11 from deep and had 7 assists (5 were quality assists), Wade and Javale combined for 19 points on 7/9-3/3-2/2, and Okoro was clutch getting 2 blocks in the final 2 minutes and saving us from a Drummond iso by cutting for an open dunk to make it a 3 point game with 11 seconds left.
Bad: Drummond took 20 shots and made 9. That's been the story all season, and he had 6 turnovers too. Javale took 7 shots in 17 minutes and I only liked about 4 of them. 3 were quality shots and the fourth was the corner 3, I'm fine with him taking one a game, he's hitting them as of now. Osman was 2/8 from inside the arc. He's been bad all season from there, should probably be strictly a 3 point shooter from now on. Dotson was 3/12, 1/8 from 3, but I'm willing to give him more of a pass considering the circumstances.
The Cavs currently have the best defense in all of basketball, but the second worse offense. Obviously the sample size is small, so it's probably not actually the best defense in the NBA, but regardless, they're playing at an elite level. This team could be legitimately good if they figure their offense out. However, Coach Bickerstaff hasn't showed any knowledge of how to do that.
The biggest problem is where this team looks offense. Per 100 possessions, Drummond leads the team in FGA with 25.6, and Javale is third with 22.2. This is astronomically high compared to where they should be. This team actively looks to get these two the ball in the post for them to create offense. Quite frankly, these two simply do not have what it takes to lead an efficient offense. Drummond shoots 48% from 2, Javale shoots 50% from 2, and neither have positive assist/tov ratios. We have a talented backcourt in Sexton and Garland, who should be the ones we run offense through.
Larry Nance needs to play more like PJ Tucker. Currently he gets ton of elbow touches leading to a lot of handoff plays and pick and pops. Including this year's small sample size and last year, nance is shooting 42% (21/50) from the corners but about 34% (47/140) from above the break. He is significantly better from the corners, but only takes about 26% of his threes from there, unlike Tucker, who takes over 70% of his threes from the corner. The fact that Coach Bickerstaff has failed to recognize this isn't good. He would be so much better offensively if he was limited to just spotting up in the corner, running in transition, offensive rebounding, and cutting to the basket (but only when theres actual space open, don't cut just to do something). He also is averaging 4.3 apg, so it looks like he's a good passer and that our offense would be missing out if we game him the ball less, but I watched all of his assists this year and they aren't anything special. The majority of his assists were simply because whoever he passed it to shot it quickly, the only noteworthy part of his passing is that he is good at finding shooters out of the short roll. Essentially, you're not missing out on anything by taking the ball away and putting him in more of an off ball role.
Another thing that is holding back our offense is how few threes Sexland takes. They take a combined 9 threes a game but Garland is shooting 47% and Sexton is shooting 52%. Those percentages are insane, it should be a crime that they aren't shooting more threes. One solution to this is to set the screens higher when they run pick and roll, so they actually have an opportunity to take the threes if the defense gives it to them instead of coming off a screen and immediately being inside the arc. Currently, Garland and Sexton take a lot of mids out of the pick and roll. Swapping those out for threes would be huge.
One issue that comes with Sexland pick and rolls is that they aren't that good at finishing around the rim. Garland shoots 50% at the basket and 44% from 3-10 feet, and Sexton shoots well at the basket but often will take shots farther out rather than going all the way to the basket because of his size. There is a solution to that, however. Drummond is 3rd in the league in ORB%, and McGee would be right behind him at 4th if he had a large enough sample size to qualify. At face value this is good, but I watched all 36 of Drummond's offensive rebounds this year, and they really don't provide value. He is shooting 12/30 (40%) with 2 shooting fouls. Every single time he goes back up with it, and it simply doesn't produce good results. If he doesn't have an open dunk, he needs to kick it back out to the perimeter to reset the offense. I also watched all 20 of Javale's offensive rebounds, and he is shooting 3/9 with 2 shooting fouls, but there were a couple times where he got consecutive rebounds so it was essentially 3/5 with 2 shooting fouls. Significantly better than Drummond. If he didn't have a shot, the ball went back to the perimeter. Much more ideal.
Drummond and Javale would be so much better offensively if they were limited to just screens, pick and rolls, offensive rebounding, and open dunks. They're so bad at everything else, yet the Cavs offense is built around everything they aren't good at.
I also think the Cavs should increase their pace. They lead the league in turnovers and steals defensively, and have the fastest backcourt in the league, yet have the 3rd slowest pace in the league. This team should be more of a run and gun style, yet this team plays nothing like that. It would certainly help to get everyone healthy to better execute that, but once at least Garland and Sexton are back, we should play a lot faster.
All of last year I have been screaming for the Cavs to get a playmaker. It's the biggest reason I was pushing so hard to go after Lamelo in the draft. In 2020, Delly led the team with an ast% of 29%, second highest was Garland with 18.5%, and just about everyone else was in the teens. Yet, the 19-win 2020 Cavs were a winning team when Delly was on the court and 11.2 points better per 100 possessions. We needed a playmaker badly. This year, Garland has grown and developed into that much needed playmaker. He's averaging 6.3 apg with a 28.7 ast%, with second place Osman at 18.8%. Extremely similar to last year, and the results are similar, too. The Cavs with Garland on the court outscore opponents by 6.6 points per 100 and are 14.6 points better than without him. Giving him the ball more and letting him run more pick and roll would be even more impactful for this offense.
Cedi Osman is kind of like the anti-Larry Nance as far as locational 3pt%. Every year of his career he shoots better from above the break than he does in the corners. He takes 29% of his threes from the corner this year, that should probably be a little lower. Swapping Nance and Osman's positioning when they're both on the court, putting Nance more in the corner and Osman more out top, would really improve the overall shooting and spacing on this team.
This offense has some huge problems that need fixed, but the blueprint is there. Quit giving Drummond and McGee the ball to create offense, play Larry Nance more like PJ Tucker, run more spread pick and roll, set the screens higher so Sexland can shoot more threes, have Drummond and McGee rebound the misses and don't go back up with them unless they're open, and pick up the pace by running the floor. I don't know the ceiling of this offense, but these changes could easily get them up to at least middle of the pack. Combine that with what's currently the NBA's best defense, and this team could be legitimately good.
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