It's been a while since I've done one of these. I originally started this as a way to be able to ramble without the shackles of Twitter's character limits, but recently I've gone back to long Twitter threads as a way to express my thoughts. I'm going to try to use this more, but we'll see how it actually goes. That being said, I have something I want to talk about, so let's get into it.
I'm going to cut out the introductory space filler and get right to the point. Lauri has been disappointing for the Cavaliers so far this season, and currently his 4 year, $67 million deal is looking pretty suspect. But even if he was playing well, I would still have my concerns.
Lauri is not good defensively. He's shown good effort throughout this year, but regardless, he isn't effective. The Cavs' defense is just better when there's someone else, typically a normal wing, on the floor instead of him.
Cavs defense with Lauri ON: 108.6 DRTG, 10th in the league
Cavs defense with Lauri OFF: 103.9 DRTG, 2nd in league
(all stats in this article via Basketball-Reference.com, as of 1/13/22)
Having Lauri on the floor isn't crippling, but having him off unlocks the crazy heights of this defense. These on/off numbers don't have a lot of noise skewing the data either, as Lauri actually spends a lot of time with the Cavs' elite rim protectors
% of minutes spent with:
Frobley: 45%
Just Allen: 25%
Just Mobley: 17%
Neither: 13%
I'm sure having elite rim protection behind him for 87% of his minutes contributes to the defense not being crippled with him out there. Regardless, he isn't very good on the defensive end, and the numbers back that up. As for the offensive end, I don't see a path for him there, either.
It's well known how much Lauri has struggled offensively this season. 32% from three on 6 attempts per game, 53.7% TS%, and a career low in points when measured by both per game and per possession. He has not been who the Cavs have signed up for.
In terms of offensive fit, he's currently starting at the 3 next to Garland, either Okoro or Stevens, Mobley, and Allen. In a typical offense, I find it best to have 2 creating ball handlers (one works if the one is really good), 1-2 play finishers (at least one screen setter), and at least one low usage defensive player (the "Royce O'Neale", mainly to ensure the offensive hierarchy stays intact and the ball remains in the hands of the best players). Currently the Cavs run with one ball handler, one Royce O'Neale, and 3 play finishers. The offense needs more creation, as we're beginning to see the effects it's having on Garland. Defenses are keying on him, putting more length on him, and there are no other options to help create.
Before long there is going to be another ball handler in the starting lineup to alleviate the pressure from Darius, whether that's Eric Gordon, Caris LeVert, or someone else. That leaves you with 2 ball handlers, 3 play finishers, and 0 Royce O'Neale's. The Royce O'Neale role isn't super necessary on the offensive end as long as the hierarchy is established, but where it has its importance is on the defensive end. Since the Royce is the 5th option on the floor, it means you can get away with players who can't do a whole lot offensively. If you can hit a catch and shoot three and know when to cut, you can do well in that role. The point of it is sacrificing extra offensive talent for more defensive capability and energy exertion. You don't have to ask much of them on the offensive end, so you can ask a lot of them on the defensive end.
The point I'm trying to get at is with the addition of a creating ball handler, Lauri's spot in the starting lineup would be better off taken by a Royce O'Neale. As for off the bench, there really isn't a spot for him there, either. I don't trust him defensively at the 3, Kevin Love is taking the minutes at the 4, and all 48 center minutes are filled up by Mobley and Allen. As for Kevin Love, he's been playing amazing this year. Third highest points per 100 possessions in his career on career high efficiency, the definition of a resurgence. Theoretically that backup power forward position won't be open until Love's contract is up in a year and a half, and even then I'm not sure if the spot will really be open. Sure, Love will be 35 and in need of a new contract but no one knows for sure what he'll look like by then. Even if Love isn't the guy, I'd love to see Dean Wade take those backup PF minutes. I'm high on Wade and that'll ensure good defense out of both frontcourt positions for all 48 minutes. Plus, it's easier to have Wade sit around and play spot minutes for a year and a half before a consistent large role opens up than it is for a guy like Lauri, especially considering the contracts of the two players (Lauri: >$15mil/yr, Wade: <$2mil/yr).
Lauri isn't playing well, won't fit in the starting lineup when we make an inevitable move, won't have a role on the bench until the 2024 season, and even then there's someone else primed to take that spot. He flat out does not fit on this team.
Regarding possible destinations for Lauri, there aren't a whole lot of good options. Utah makes some sense, they like to put Gobert on the worst offensive player regardless of position and have him roam, which can sometimes lead to some awkward matchups. Earlier this season when they were playing the Nuggets, Bojan Bogdanović was matched up on Nikola Jokic so Gobert could roam, and Jokic had 26-21-11 on 66% TS%. Putting Lauri next to Gobert could help out with that, so you're not always playing with a terrible mismatch. Sure, Lauri isn't the best defender, but he's at least 7ft tall. Lauri also makes it so there's at least another big body that can stand in front of the rim when Gobert switches out on the perimeter. Gobert isn't bad on a switch, the problem is that when he's on the perimeter, he can't be in the paint, and no one else is good in the paint. He doesn't have help because he is the help. Lauri can theoretically be that help. I also have confidence that the Jazz can get the most out of Lauri offensively. He'd go back to shooting 40% from three and 58% from two like he did last year in Chicago, no problem. That being said, the Jazz might be more keen to just adding more perimeter defense instead, and there's a good chance that's the better solution for them defensively. Lauri for sure doesn't help that. The only rumored destination is San Antonio, and that's only because they wanted to sign him last offseason. However, they backed out because of Lauri's desired contract, which could be a hurdle again in a trade. Other teams that could make sense are rebuilding teams looking to take a flier on a guy with talent, like OKC, Orlando, Detroit, and Houston, but even then I'm not convinced they'd be interested.
The Cavs are stuck will a low-value asset that doesn't fit great with both the current and future rosters, and unless his efficiency begins to show signs of life, it could get nasty quick. I think he has a shot at turning it around, but Koby Altman should definitely be shopping him at the deadline.
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