As the All-Star Break comes to a close, it marks the beginning of Trade Season. The March 25th deadline is rapidly approaching, so let's take a look at what decisions teams have to make, what moves might happen, and overall what the league is going to look like for the rest of the season. I'm not going to throw in terrible trades just for the sake of adding more trades, so it'll take time to find good fits and trades that make sense for both sides. I might turn this into a series, but as of now I'm just going to begin with 3 trades.
1. Boston Celtics
The Celtics are struggling this season, at least in comparison for their expectations and previous success. They're 19-17 on the year, 11th in Ortg, 19th in Drtg, and 9th in SRS. They're still 4th in the East because of the overall disappointment the conference has been, but it is safe to say no one in Boston feels good about the Celtics right now. In the offseason they signed Tristan Thompson for 2yr/$19mil to be their center. this move, combined with various injuries, has led to Boston trotting out a frontcourt that has both Theis and Thompson starting. This has really hurt them both offensively and defensively. Theis can shoot, but he's not a shooter. There's a difference. Thompson is obviously a non-shooter. The result has led to some cramped spacing, which has done the Boston offense zero favors. On the defensive end, it has stripped the team of their identity of being able to switch almost anything. Neither Theis or Thompson are particularly bad at switching, but they're not good at it either, and having both of them on the court at once amplifies this. The result is to break up the pairing. Theoretically you could solve the problem by moving one of them to the bench, but then that cuts Robert "Timelord" Williams out of the rotation. That probably wouldn't be within Boston's best interests, however. The result is this trade that I've proposed.
Tucker would solve a lot of problems for this Boston team. He can play power forward, which would allow all 48 center minutes to be covered by Theis and Williams. Tucker is obviously good defensively, and fits into the switching scheme very well. He hasn't been good this year though, but there's reason to believe he'll be better on a contender. Since the Rockets have been so bad as of late, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Tucker simply lost interest and will play better on a better team. We've seen this with Nic Batum, who was horrible in Charlotte, then signed with the Clippers and suddenly became an amazing role player. The move also gets Boston out of having to pay Thompson the guaranteed $9.7 million he is owed next year. Tucker, on the other hand, is on an expiring, so he can be reevaluated at the end of the year. Given Thompson's contract, it is possible that the price tag for Tucker could be higher than what it would normally be. Houston would need to be compensated for having to pay Thompson next year, so it might drive up the price to either a protected first or a player that was one of Boston's recent first round selections. Houston also is an obvious seller at the deadline, and Tucker has been in a lot of rumors, with probably more to come. Thompson on the Rockets would start at center until Christian Wood comes back, and then move to the bench. Overall I think the trade would be very good for both sides, fixing some of the problems Boston has had this season and getting Houston future assets in return for a veteran who doesn't fit the direction that the team is going.
2. Pacers and Pelicans
Neither the Pacers or Pelicans have lived up to expectations so far this season. The Pacers are 16-19 and 10th in the East, and the Pelicans are 15-21 and 11th in the West. The Pacers were a consensus pick to be a playoff team going into the season, and the Pelicans were gifted an abnormally high amount of nationally televised games in hopes that they would play well and that Zion and the Pelicans would become one of the centers of attention and. Instead, everyone seems to have lost interest in Zion due to the lack of team success and how the media attempted to anoint him as the new face of the league.
The Pelicans as a team have more clear strengths and weaknesses than most. They're 6th in Ortg and 29th in Drtg. They're 3rd worst in blocks per game and 4th worst in DFG% at the rim. They're also 3rd worst in both D3PAr and D3PA%.
The Pacers for the last few years have been starting both Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner at PF and C. It's always been a question of whether or not they can play together, and the results would lean towards no. This year the Pacers have a net rating of +0.2, yet when both Sabonis and Turner are on the floor it's at -2.8. Logic also backs this up for the same reasons that the Celtics are struggling. Considering all of this, I think I've found a trade that makes a lot of sense for both sides.
Bledsoe hasn't been bad this year, but the fit with him and Lonzo in the backcourt has been questionable and I wouldn't be surprised if the Pelicans would be looking to move on from him. Plus, at 31 he doesn't fit the timeline of the Pelicans' young core. This trade, for the Pacers, would allow Sabonis to be the full time 5 so he doesn't have to chase 4s around the perimeter, with recent 8th overall pick Jaxon Hayes as his backup. Bringing in Bledsoe also moves Brogdon back to SG. Putting another ballhandler next to Brogdon might help him out; he's been putting up big numbers, but his efficiency has been below league average in Indiana. He's had a 96 TS+ in both years as a Pacer, a far cry from the 110 TS+ he was at in his last year in Milwaukee. Lifting the load off of his shoulders a little should help him out a lot in the efficiency department. It should also be included that the Lakers' pick sent to Indiana in this trade is protected 8-30 and unprotected next year. Essentially it's a 2022 unprotected first from the Lakers.
From the Pelicans' perspective, this move would help them out a lot. Turner is a perfect fit next to Zion, as a 24 year old center that is both a consistent DPOY candidate and can stretch the floor. Putting more spacing around Zion is just going to amplify his strengths even more. This trade would also move Lonzo back to point guard, letting his elite playmaking get more utilization as well. However, bringing in Turner would move Steven Adams to the bench. Trading Adams would be the better option, but his $27 million salary for this year makes that difficult. It might be easier to wait until the offseason to move him, when his yearly salary drops off by $10 million. Trading Bledsoe would also open up more minutes for the Pelicans' young guys in the backcourt, specifically recent lottery pick Kira Lewis and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. If Indiana doesn't think this is enough compensation, then it wouldn't hurt to throw in another pick or two, considering the surplus GM David Griffin has at his disposal from the AD and Jrue Holiday trades. Turner in New Orleans is a dream destination, and the Pelicans have the assets to make it happen.
3. Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers are in a similar position to the Pelicans. Both have amazing offenses and horrific defenses. However, the Blazers are winning games. That being said, they both have the same net rating. I don't really see the extreme difference it record to be that sustainable. Portland is currently 7th in Ortg and 28th in Drtg. They have been missing both CJ McCollum (who went to high school 15 minutes from my house) and Jusuf Nurkic, who are both scheduled to have their injuries re-evaluated later this week. In the meantime, they have been giving notably horrible defender Enes Kanter the minutes at center. Kanter is fine off the bench, but playing him heavy minutes takes a toll on a defense. They have also been giving Carmelo Anthony a lot of minutes and shot attempts, despite him being a large negative on both ends of the court. Minimizing his minutes without upsetting his cult following would be beneficial for the team. Rodney Hood is also horrible, his return from the Achilles injury has gone nowhere nearly as smooth as Kevin Durant's. Anfernee Simons has been a phenomenal three point shooter, but for some reason the team is always horrible when he plays, and it has been that way his whole career. I'm not sure why that is, but that combined with the guard talent on this team, he might be a good trade asset to help boost the team. Zach Collins is also an asset, but he's only played 11 games last year and none this year so moving for someone who can help right now might not be a bad decision.
In this trade, the Blazers get a great defensive forward with some offensive chops in exchange for young assets and salary filler. James Ennis has also been really good this year as a 3nD wing. The Blazers have already been linked with Gordon, and now is a better time than ever to go after him. One problem is that Portland would get really thin at the guard spots. With everyone healthy, it's perfectly fine, but they could definitely benefit from signing veterans to boost the depth. After the trade, it would give Portland a rotation consisting of Lillard, McCollum, Covington, Gordon, Nurkic, Trent, Jones Jr, Ennis, and Kanter. That would definitely be better than what Portland has now, and could solve some of the problems they currently have on the defensive end. The other problem is that it would put the Blazers $1.8 million into the luxury tax, but given their situation I think they would bite the bullet and just pay the tax. From Orlando's perspective, They've going to be sellers at this deadline, and Gordon always seems to be in trade rumors. Getting both Simons and Collins would be a good enough return in my opinion, but if not then it shouldn't cost more than a 2nd rounder or two to convince Orlando.
These three trades on paper make a lot of sense for both sides, and I really would like to actually see them happen. It would be beneficial for all parties involved and could really solve some problems. This was a lot of fun for me, and I plan to release more trade ideas as we get closer and closer to the March 25th deadline.
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