Trade Deadline Targets: Eric Gordon

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    It's no secret that the Cavs have been looking around the league for backcourt help at the deadline. With both Sexton and Rubio down, there's a serious hole next to Garland. So far the Cavs have filled up the SG position with defenders like Isaac Okoro and Lamar Stevens, and brought in Rajon Rondo and Brandon Goodwin to take point when Garland is off. Despite this, there just isn't enough ball handling available on this team besides Garland. Darius does pretty much everything for this team in terms of ball handling duties, and he needs help. Sometimes it works, like last night when the tired Cavs came back from down 18 to the Thunder in OKC on the last night of their West Coast road trip thanks to Darius' 27 points and 18 assists. Other nights it doesn't go so well, like when we played Golden State and they used their size and length to hound Darius. No one else could help relieve pressure from Garland and we finished the night with 82 points. 

    Eric Gordon is my personal favorite when it comes to trade targets. The 33 year old Gordon is having somewhat of a resurgent season in terms of efficiency. He's taking on a smaller workload, averaging the least amount of shots in his career by both per game and per possession metrics, but efficiency-wise he's having a career year. Gordon is currently boasting a TS% of 64.4%, the highest of his career by a wide margin. 

    With Harden gone, Gordon has taken more of a creator role offensively. In the last 2 years, he's been assisted on only 32% of his 2pt attempts. Darius Garland is at 30% for reference. His assists the last 2 years are also each the highest in his Houston tenure. This year specifically, it's the highest number since his 2015 season. He's done this through a lot more pick and roll than he has in past years.

    Gordon's biggest strength in the Houston version of him has been his 3pt shooting, and this year is no different. However, I want to discuss his driving game a little bit. Eric Gordon is built like a tank, 6'3" and 215lbs. He was a big part of those super small ball Rockets that despite being short, you flat out couldn't post them up. Harden is a notoriously good post defender, P.J. Tucker was built like a brick wall, Robert Covington averaged 2.2 blocks as a Rocket, and of course Eric Gordon. Now, instead of defending post-ups, Gordon is using his strength to simply move centers out of the way on drives. He doesn't have the same verticality as he did in his younger years, but he doesn't really need it anymore. He's extremely comfortable putting his shoulder into the chest of defenders and simply moving them out of the way. 


    Gordon has mastered this ability to move defenders with his strength. He's great at getting all the way to the rim. A lot of players that drive a lot will have a similar % of FGA from both 0-3ft and 3-10ft, but Gordon takes significantly more shots inside 3ft than from 3-10ft. This year, 28% of his shots come from inside 3ft with only 17% coming from 3-10ft, and this follows his career trends. His driving ability has also proven to be extremely effective with actually finishing at the basket. In the last 2 years, he's shooting 71% within 3ft, a number typically only seen by crazy dunkers and centers. It's extremely impressive that Gordon's been able to do this considering he has a total of 4 dunks in the last 2 years. On 2pt attempts as a whole, he shot 57% last year and 55% this year. Again, extremely impressive for a player that doesn't dunk anymore and just impressive in general for someone who creates off the dribble as much as he does.

    Even if Gordon was just an okay shooter, he'd still be a big positive from his driving ability and playmaking. However, he's also shooting a blistering 45.6% from three this year. We also know what kind of shooter Gordon is in terms of shot selection. He has unlimited range, it seems. He's not a movement shooter, but he can pull up easily off the dribble. He also loves taking audacious threes off the catch, often deep and not very open. In past years, he's been a super high volume, good enough percentage kind of shooter. However, he's lowered the volume this year and as a result, is shooting the 2nd best % in the league among qualified players, behind only P.J. Tucker. 

    As for how he fits on the team, I think he slots into that starting SG spot pretty easily. Cavs have been running with either Isaac Okoro or Lamar Stevens there as of late, so they go to the bench. Lauri is the other option, and he had a very rough December but in his 8 January games he's been averaging 13-5-2 on 62% TS%. I don't think he's going to go anywhere. You can stagger minutes with Gordon and Garland a little bit, so he can help with the non-Garland minutes, but ideally they spend significant time together. He can also use his strength and 6'9" wingspan to play good defense.

    Where most people have issues with trading for Gordon are related to his age and contract. It's no secret he's old, he turned 33 less than a month ago, but I already highlighted how I think he's going to age well. Strength and jumpshots stick around for a long time. Regardless, he isn't even close to fitting the timeline of the core, but there's a reason I'm not really looking for a long term fit right now. Collin Sexton is set to return next year, and he's going to take back a lot of ball handling duties. Or, at least, I want him to, instead of the off-ball stuff he did this year. Attacking from the corners just doesn't work with his skillset, but that's a story for another time. With Gordon's age and elite jumper, he'll be in a good position to take a backseat to Sexton next year. 

    Regarding the contract situation, I honestly have no problem with it at all. He's set to make $18 mil this year, $19.5 mil next year, and $21 mil the year after that. The $18 mil this year matches up perfectly with Ricky Rubio's $17.8 mil expiring deal to make a trade work. Houston should be looking for cap space, so Ricky's contract makes perfect sense for them. Whether or not Rubio will be traded has also been a topic of discussion, but Koby Altman certainly is willing to trade it, as evidenced by Koby allowing the deadline to pass to apply for a $8.9 mil Disabled Player Exception. Back to Gordon's contract, you're already spending that money on Rubio, so this year's money means nothing. Next year you assume Gordon can be a similar player, maybe with less asked of him considering Sexton will be back. The year after that will be the final year of his contract. He'll turn 35 in the middle of that season, but considering he'll be on an expiring contract, you can basically do whatever you want with that money. If he's too old, you can buy him out, let it expire at the end of the year, or you can go use that expiring as salary filler to go get someone else, just like how the Cavs would theoretically use Ricky's money to get Gordon. The contract looks scary at face value, but when you look closer at it, it works great given the situation. 

    As for how you actually go about getting Gordon in a trade, it isn't hard. I've already mentioned Rubio's expiring. Speaking of Rubio, he won't play a game in Houston under that contract due to injury. Plus, Houston already has a wasted roster spot right now with John Wall. Considering these factors, I think it's likely Houston would buy out Rubio, so he wouldn't even have to move his family, which is important to Ricky. So, Rubio's expiring makes the money work to get Gordon. However, Houston will likely also want a young player or draft capital because Gordon is still good. Giving them our 2022 lottery protected 1st round pick makes sense for us. I don't expect it to be a high pick, we're already 2.5 games out of first place in the East and we have the easiest remaining schedule in the league according to basketball-reference.com, so it'll be likely in the mid-to-late-20s. However, it's still a 1st rounder, so it's not a throwaway, but I'm comfortable giving it up because of the other picks we have in that draft. We own San Antonio's 2022 2nd rounder, as well as (ironically) Houston's 2022 2nd rounder. Both picks will most likely be in the 30s, so that's why I'm okay with giving up a pick in the 20s to go get a guy like Eric Gordon. As for Houston, I think Rubio and CLE's 2022 lottery protected first is exactly what they'd be looking for in a trade.

    Eric Gordon is still really good, fills the hole in our roster, is affordable, is on a contract that is easy to work with, and can take a backseat as he gets older. Even with the age issue, his game is suited to age well. He flat out makes a ton of sense, and he's the player I want to see the Cavs acquire at the rapidly approaching trade deadline. 

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