With the trade deadline fast approaching, this will probably be the last edition I do of these. I might put out an article discussing whoever we acquire, assuming we do make a trade, but this'll probably be the last one I do looking at hypotheticals.
Yesterday, the Blazers traded away Norman Powell and Robert Covington for Eric Bledsoe, Justise Winslow, Keon Johnson, and a future 2nd round pick. Why is this significant? Because it's a clear indication Portland is ready to begin their rebuild. They're giving up on this core and are ready to build a new team with Anfernee Simons at the helm.
Eric Bledsoe is effectively an expiring contract, only guaranteed $4 million next year. Winslow was also likely just in there for money reasons, he's not a rotation caliber player anymore. Keon Johnson was just taken with the 21st pick in the most recent draft. This is as clearly a teardown move as it gets in the NBA.
Because of this move, it most likely signifies that other Blazers veterans are available for trade, like CJ McCollum. I don't expect Dame to get moved until the offseason, but that's beside the point. CJ could be available, and the price tag could make a deal worth it.
Considering the Blazers only got Keon Johnson, a 2nd, and expiring money for Norman Powell and Robert Covington, I don't think their asking price is going to be too high for CJ. Reports have also come out in the last year saying league sources and executives see CJ as a slightly negative asset, which could effect his market and asking price. An additional report came out today saying executives believe CJ will be traded either by this deadline or next offseason. Here's my proposal:
Rubio acts as the expiring in this deal, saving the Blazers a ton of future money and giving them cap flexibility. Cedi is also in for money reasons, but could be flipped for more assets. Then of course, there's two first round picks. Normally I'm hesitant to trade multiple firsts, but our pick this year is extremely expendable so it's almost like we're only giving up one first, but Portland still gets 2 firsts. I've said this before, but the reason I don't care about giving up this year's first is because of the other picks we have in this draft. We have our first, Houston's 2nd, and San Antonio's 2nd. Our first will be in the mid-to-late 20s, Houston's pick will be in the early 30s, and San Antonio's will be in the mid-to-late 30s. Not really sacrificing much, especially considering how valuable roster spots are in the NBA.
Now it's time to look at the on-court fit. CJ in the last 3 years has averaged roughly 22-4-5 on slightly below average efficiency. How he goes about scoring is what interests me, though. He's heavily reliant on jumpers and isn't much of a finisher around the rim. He also is good in the PnR, especially with pull-up shooting. This is interesting is because that will pair well with the Cavs' bigs, who in turn are great at finishing, and are also good in the short roll for when defenses trap. It's a good pairing, each complimenting the other.
As far as the logistics of the rotation, I think it can work. This year there's a gaping hole at guard from the losses of Sexton and Rubio, which CJ can easily fill.
(position/name/minutes)
PG: Garland 34, Goodwin/Rondo 14
SG: CJ 34, Okoro 14
SF: Okoro 16, Wade 23, Stevens 9
PF: Mobley 19, Love 22, Wade 7
C: Allen 33, Mobley 15
It's little funky because Lauri is out. But when he's in, it looks more like this:
PG: Garland, Goodwin
SG: CJ, Okoro
SF: Lauri, Okoro
PF: Mobley, Love
C: Allen, Mobley
And then sprinkle in some Wade/Stevens/Windler wherever needed
However, I'm sure the bigger question comes next year when Sexton comes back, assuming he does. In that case, I think CJ would be the one to come off the bench. Since he became a full time starter in year 3, he's started every game since then and has averaged >35mpg. That's 7 years of heavy minutes throughout his 20s. I think he'd be willing to take a break from carrying and accept a bench role. Even then, it's not like we're turning him into a typical bench player, he'd still get good minutes, just not crazy minutes. The benefit of bringing CJ off the bench means we'll have a borderline elite backcourt for all 48 minutes. Garland, Sexton, and CJ can fill every available guard minute. To fill 2 positions for a full game with 3 players, you need to average 32mpg between those three players. That's not too much to ask from those three guys. You can even have some minutes left over if you ever want to try out playing all three of them. Anyways, this is roughly what next year's rotation would look like:
PG: Garland, Sexton
SG: Sexton, CJ
SF: Lauri, Okoro
PF: Mobley, Love
C: Allen, Mobley
Lauri can overflow some minutes into PF, or you could insert Wade there to cover.
The result is that you have an elite backcourt for the entire game, along with elite rim protection to help on the defensive end, also for the entire game. As for the money side of things, CJ is getting paid $31 million this year, $33 million next year, and $36 million the year after that. Seems steep but the rest of our team should still be cheap at that point. Love's contract is already lined up with Garland's extension, so that cancels out, and throughout CJ's contract, Okoro and Mobley will still be on rookie deals. I'm assuming Sexton will get something like $20-$25 million per year, Allen is fixed at $20 per year, Lauri is around $17 million per year, and no one else is making significant money. As long as his contract is off before Mobley's likely max extension, we'll be fine, and that's exactly the case.
So to wrap it up, it's time to bring CJ home. The Ohio kid is due for a return, let's make it happen. The price isn't bad, he'll fit well, and he provides something we desperately need.
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