Exploring Ben Simmons in Cleveland, part 2 + Devil's Advocate Garland Talk

    In the first part of this series, I explored the idea of turning Okoro, Rubio, extra salary filler, and a bunch of picks for Ben Simmons. It was the max I was willing to offer for Simmons, but considering I'm not in charge, I should probably look at other options, including those that I don't necessarily agree with.




    There was a report today saying the Sixers are only interested in Darius Garland. It doesn't say exactly what their price is, but a deal doesn't get done without Garland, according to the report. There's a few different ways to go about flipping Garland for Simmons, but I think the best and easiest is Garland, Kevin Love, and a first for Simmons. Another option would be Garland, Ricky Rubio, Cedi Osman, and a first for Ben, but honestly I think Love works better for Philly than Rubio. Between Garland, Tyrese Maxey, Shake Milton, and to an extent Seth Curry, I think they have enough guard play to not need Rubio. Love is far from reliable, but their frontcourt could use an extra body, especially one that shoots as well as he does. Also, an underrated part of getting Love is that it keeps the possibility open for Daryl Morey to trade for another star in a year. Next year Love's contract will be a $29 million expiring, and you can combine that with guys like Maxey and Jaden Springer and Shake as well as a bunch of picks to go get whoever becomes available. 

    Again, I don't want to trade Garland, but it's worth exploring. I'm definitely not trading 2 of Garland, Sexton, and Okoro. I want to trade Allen, but that won't be possible until January 5th. Philly wouldn't want Allen, so it would require a 3rd team, but the timeline is the bigger issue. Holding off until January to make the trade opens up the opportunity for Philly to accept another offer from Minnesota or someone else. 

    Now time for the rotation following the trade:

    ~16mpg each unit

    Sexton, ???, Simmons, Mobley, Lauri
    Sexton, Okoro, Windler/Cedi, Wade, Mobley
    ???, Okoro, Simmons, Wade, Lauri

    Ideally the missing guard spot is filled by an elite shooter. Playmaking is optional but preferred. The two best candidates for this are Buddy Hield and Coby White. Buddy is the better player and a truly elite shooter, but White is a lot younger and has more off the dribble upside. For this scenario, I'm going to go with Buddy. Both appear to be available but the Kings have already shown that the price tag isn't high after almost trading him to the Lakers minutes before the Westbrook trade. Shouldn't take too much to get Hield, sending Allen to a third team (maybe Washington for Kuzma and Harrell, the exact trade the Lakers almost made) or Rubio and a first if you want to get a deal done sooner. Then, when the trade restriction passes for Allen, you can probably dump him to OKC for a first, maybe two. It's about time OKC uses those picks to buy. Now, looking at what the rotation looks like with Hield:

    ~16mpg each

    Sexton, Hield, Simmons, Mobley, Lauri
    Sexton, Okoro, Windler/Cedi, Wade, Mobley
    Simmons, Hield, Okoro, Wade, Lauri

    Notes:

    Starting lineup: I'm pretty high on Sexton, his passing included. Simmons might run as the defacto point guard, but him and Sexton can share time on-ball in that starting lineup. Hield and Lauri next to them make great floor spacers, and Mobley is still a question mark for now offensively. Defensively, Sexton doesn't have to match up against wings, which is a positive. Simmons can guard anyone, and Hield has the size to switch on bigger players. Mobley will get to play the roaming help defender role while he's still skinny, and Lauri will just park himself in the paint as much as possible. I understand Lauri isn't a good defensive player, but he's 7ft and isn't quick laterally. If he's going to succeed anywhere, it's in the paint, especially when he has Mobley to help cover up for his shortcomings. One other factor on offense will be the possibility of Sexton/Simmons pick and rolls. Simmons is dominant in short rolls, so it'll be a great way to use your two best players in 2-man actions.

    Second Lineup: This lineup will be a lot of Sexton isos and Sexton/Mobley PnRs. Okoro will also get his fair share of on ball opportunities, something that I'm really intrigued about. That part of his game developing will be huge for his career. At SF I don't know who gets the spot between Windler and Cedi, whoever earns it gets it. The Wade/Mobley frontcourt is a fit I really like, and will be excited to see. There's a lot of switchability in that lineup, something that is crucial given Mobley's current build. Offensively, I'm much higher on Garland/Mobley PnRs than I am Sexton/Mobley PnRs, but it definitely could work. Sexton can still easily run the high pick and roll that I've highlighted for Garland, but it'll require an uptick in 3pt volume. Once that happens, it might even be more effective than Garland considering how much better he is as a scorer. Mobley also makes a great roll threat, punishing defenses that commit two defenders to the ball but also working as a lob target.

    Third Lineup: It's just Simmons with a bunch of spacing. The only player that isn't a good to great shooter is Okoro. If he's ever going to prove he can be the guy on offense, this is where that will be. There is also opportunity for some other actions like Okoro PnR and screens for Hield, possibly handoffs from Simmons. Defensively, it's the best lineup at defending the perimeter with Simmons, Okoro, Hield, and Wade, but Lauri is still the center. Hopefully there's enough perimeter defense to limit how many shots Lauri has to defend.

    Miscellaneous notes: I believe in Garland, but if you're pessimistic you can definitely find some cause for concern. He has the skillset to be a great pull up shooter in the pick and roll and then be able to take advantage of the opportunities that creates, but it's not how he's played up until this point. Right now he is extremely floater heavy. He doesn't hunt out threes like he should and will consistently turn down pull up threes for a chance to get in the lane. That sounds good, but he's better outside than he is inside. Once he gets into the lane, he's not as threatening as he is from the perimeter. Floaters are meant to be a secondary option, not a primary. They're good when it's your only option, but if it's the only shot you can consistently create, that's not good. He plays like a downhill slasher, but he has the skillset of a shooter who stretches the defense to its limits. Currently, whenever he does take pull up threes, you can see it's not something he's really looking for, it's not how he thinks he can attack a defense best. Whenever he gets enough space on the perimeter to shoot with a live dribble, he'll try to drive and eat up the space. If he gets cut off, only then will he step back into a triple. It's simply not ingrained in his brain to look for those shots whenever he can. Also in isolation when he gets a mismatch on a big, too often he gets stuck in these one foot fadeaways. It's easy to say he'll get it figured out and start to take a bunch more threes, but it's certainly not guaranteed. I've blamed his problems on the coaching staff for the pick and roll structure and strategy, but the comments from the coaching staff could be more than just lip service. They could be seriously trying to get Garland to take those shots more often and it could actually be Garland that's the problem. After all, it is Garland that's making the decisions on the floor. It is Garland that chooses when are where to shoot the ball. The coaching staff can say what they want, but at the end of the day it's up to Garland. I'm not trying to talk myself out of Garland for the sake of making a Simmons trade, but before I couldn't afford to look at the dark side of Garland. Now I can. The idea that Garland is actually the problem is something I have been aware of but never was something I was really willing to explore or put into words. It's one of the reasons I still see Sexton as the team's best player without much question. 
    I really don't know what Sexton's ceiling is. Every limit that gets put on him, he just blows by. He's made significant and tangible improvements every year, and is showing no signs of stopping. Whenever anyone talks about Sexton, they act like he's a finished product, despite him consistently showing the exact opposite. Going into his rookie year, he improved his 3pt shooting. 2nd season, improved shot selection/efficiency and scoring volume. 3rd year he improved his playmaking, foul drawing, and scoring volume. Hopefully we'll see the 3pt volume improve, as well as continued playmaking improvements. 
Sexton Graphic courtesy of @The_BBall_Index on Twitter
    Isaac Okoro is easily the biggest wildcard going into next season. There's a case for guys like Mobley and Garland, but in my opinion it has to be Okoro. I genuinely have no clue what we're going to get from him next year. There's so many different ways that this season can go for him. He could be more of a 3nD guy with an improved jumpshot. He could be a creator like we saw towards the end of last year. He could be a low-usage, low impact offensive player like we saw for most of last year. He could also be playing in Philadelphia for all I know.
    Evan Mobley needs to get strong as quickly as possible, I want Allen gone within the first hour he is eligible to be traded. Also I don't expect Mobley to be super impactful right away. The rookie year for most players is just about producing cool highlights.
    Finding a way to make it work defensively with Lauri Markkanen at center is crucial. The offensive upside with him at center is insane. He's 7ft tall, do whatever you can to make it work. Having Mobley help as a weakside shot blocker, along with having good perimeter defense, could be that answer.
    I will definitely be doing reevaluation on JB Bickerstaff. I would've canned him midseason last year but having a full offseason to establish whatever he wants could possibly have good results. Depending on what I see, my opinion on him could easily change. I want it to work, I just don't think right now that it will. Being proven wrong would be awesome. 

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